A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
